An update on the unemployment numbers.
As should be common knowledge around here by now, the government has been falsifying the official unemployment rates since at least June's report of May's numbers. However, the number of unemployment claims seem to still be faithful, and the number of claimants made it clear that the real unemployment rate was far higher than the official figure, but it lacks details to let us come up with a real figure. In any case, I just found a page in the Department of Labor's site which neatly lists the number of benefits claims nationwide per week, and separates the initial claims from the continued ones.
This allows us to see that, so far, 78 million initial unemployment claims have been made since mid March 2020, a time frame during which the usual amount of claims would be about 10.5m. That means that, so far, the crisis -- not corona, but this fucking gigantic capitalist crisis -- has caused the loss of 67.5m jobs. So close to 66.6m...
And the amount of initial claims per week still has a long way to go before dropping to pre-crisis numbers. It decreased fairly steadily until December, when it somehow began climbing a bit again. It has since pretty much plateau'ed at about 830k new claims per week. The usual amount ought to be 220k per week. This means
the crisis hasn't even finished hitting yet
, let alone give way to recovery.
Of course, these sums have several caveats. It's not stated if state, federal and COVID aid benefits can be claimed simultaneously, nor if someone making an initial claim after another one has ran out actually counts as two claims, and which are the requirements to file a claim -- the increasingly precarious jobs, I would wager, probably make it more difficult to claim benefits if you get sacked -- and sho on and sho on. The amount of chronically unemployed people too is a mystery, I have no idea if such a number would remain stable or climb along with the overall unemployment rate. With those in mind, the most crude estimation would be to assume that 66.6m people became unemployed (>implying Americans can survive on a single job nowadays) because of the crisis, which would mean an astounding 41% and change of the 165m-strong workforce lost their jobs because of the crisis (and some 6.4% more from the usual attrition rate) in these 48 weeks
this can't be taken as an unemployment rate because it doesn't account for the amount of jobs created. We can't use the number of lapsing benefits claimants because we don't know how many of these found a job and how many just run out of benefits. The Department of Labor does state how many jobs are created, but it's worthless now because that's exactly the data which they are falsifying in order to get that nice and low official unemployment rate. If someone knows of another viable source for amount of jobs created in Murka, please let me know. In any case, the takeaway is that things haven't even stopped getting worse yet.