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/edu/ - Education

'The weapon of criticism cannot, of course, replace criticism of the weapon, material force must be overthrown by material force; but theory also becomes a material force as soon as it has gripped the masses.' - Karl Marx
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 No.14720[Last 50 Posts]

Nearly every successful socialist revolution has happened in an underdeveloped nation in the global periphery, usually very early in that place's capitalist development. While these revolutionary projects have proved incredibly successful at raising living standards and quality of life and modernizing their nations, most successful socialist projects have a habit of reverting through revisionism into some level of capitalist development. Those who remain committed to more Marxist-Leninist economic practices often become incredibly isolationist due to imperialist pressure.

Similarly, working class movements, things like trade unions and communist parties, were vastly more successful in the imperial core in the early stage of capitalist development. Stuff like the Paris Commune or the 1877 St. Louis General Strike would be nearly impossible today with the state of working class organization. Post-war modernization became incredibly efficient at decimating union membership and demonizing and coopting social movements. Besides, if you get a guy organizing like Lenin in a modern state they'll just kill you or imprison you for 30 years instead of sending you to a comfy cabin in Siberia for a couple summers and hoping you learn your lesson.

Essentially every highly developed capitalist nation has become incredibly efficient at atomizing workers, manufacturing alienation, and crushing the capacity of its people to organize any resistance. Look at miserable places like America, or South Korea. If the social technology available to the ruling class to manufacture consent and divide & conquer their working class only gets more sophisticated over time, why should we assume that socialism is necessarily bound to emerge from developmental progress, even if it's obviously better and technological advances might even make stuff like cybernetic central planning feasible? What's stopping them from simply making human beings so alienated from each other that fighting back is impossible? Stuff promising "socialism by 2050" because development will necessarily lead to communism seems about as likely as liberal states promising net zero carbon emissions by 2050 or whatever. Is there anything to meaningfully contradict this? The resurgence of nationalist social democracy in LatAm and stuff is encouraging but it feels like a step back in ambition.

 No.14721

We unironically need to buy more chinese stock actions for socialism by 2050 to happen.

 No.14722

>Stuff promising "socialism by 2050" because development will necessarily lead to communism seems about as likely as liberal states promising net zero carbon emissions by 2050 or whatever. Is there anything to meaningfully contradict this?
That the rate of profit falls to zero sometime between 2050 and 2070

 No.14723

>>14722
Does the world economy pull a big switch labeled "communism" when the rate of profit hits zero or goes negative?

 No.14724

>>14723
Chyna plans to
The rest of us are probably fucked because of liberals

 No.14725

>>14724
This is some magical thinking

 No.14726

>>14725
How?
They have public plans published on this
moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2030 socialism by 2050 something in 2070

The CPC has a good track record on achieving their plans like eliminating extreme poverty or greening the Gobi desert so why would these plans be different

 No.14727

File: 1683476221270.png (483.74 KB, 627x621, ClipboardImage.png)


 No.14728

>>14724
>Chyna plans to
It doesn't. They don't even promise socialism by 2050.

 No.14729

>>14720
>Does capitalist development necessarily lead to socialism?
No, but the high development is necessary for socialism and eventually communism. Also I feel that the darkest period of reaction is just delaying the inevitable and capitalism is entering it's final decades. Will it lead to socialism or will porkies blow up the planet as people watch netflix and tiktok at home and let it happen or will we have new socialisms in some form or another, yet to be known to us, since the end of capitalism event will be necessarily apocalyptic one (not necessarily just in form a asteroid strike or a nuclear holocaust kinda way, but more in a form of a revelation). No matter what capitalism will end.

 No.14730

File: 1683476564442.jpg (173.93 KB, 1080x1080, 3ew.jpg)

>>14726
They plan to achieve these goals through dirigisme not through abolition of profit motive, wage labor, private property. Its literally just a dirigisme state with red flag and aesthetics

 No.14731

>>14729
>capitalism is entering it's final decades
Well, i think that's true. The problem is that the world may do so too.

 No.14732

File: 1683476678016.pdf (1.24 MB, 170x255, 978-981-15-9833-3.pdf)


 No.14733

File: 1683477109734-0.jpeg (189.01 KB, 1369x905, 54tgre.jpeg)

File: 1683477109734-1.jpeg (169.78 KB, 851x736, 3rsf.jpeg)

>>14732
Yeah its all just silly burger misconception, its not like Xi and his teammates themselves made it very clear that they are not planning any gommunism 2050. Red capitalism with Chinese characteristics

 No.14734

>>14731
what I said

 No.14735

>>14732
I have read it. They don't promise socialism by 2050, please stop with simping for chinese pork, it's been done to death. Read the rest of it, not just "modern socialist country for a new era ". What htey actually write about has nothing to do with socialism.

 No.14736

>>14729
At the very least I'm optimistic that the American empire could very easily collapse in flames in the not-too distant future. All of the signs of decay are there.

All it would take to seal America's fate would be to do something really dumb, like trying to occupy Mexico like Afghanistan or something (very stupid idea because the land border makes going home impossible and the terrain would breed insurgents, but conventionally invading the capitol and border towns would be so easy and tempting if they couldn't manage to pull off a coup of a leftist president who didn't let them have oil/lithium or if a Trump/Bush figure needed an outlet for drug/immigration anxiety).

Of course actually living through that collapse would probably suck for decades for everyone.

 No.14737

>>14733
To add to that even in the book you cited there is zero plans for actual socialism like abolition of private property, wage labor, planning etc. What they mean by socialism today in China is mere wordplay for high gdp per capita and various public amenities like a social democracy. Dengist vietnam is same.

 No.14738

only existing socialist country is DPRK if you look honestly

 No.14739

>>14738
I don't know about their economy enough to certainly say they still have socialism. They, like Cuba, had to do some market reforms iirc.

 No.14740

>>14732
Did you read it yourself lol

 No.14741

Elements of it are necessary in order to create a proletarian class and developed modes of production/le productive forces.

The difference with somewhere like the PRC is they cannot honestly be called Capitalism, as the national bourgeoise of China are not the dominant or ruling class. The rise of China - if it is successful - will also lead to the collapse of the Western Empire and create conditions for revolution there. Not even because China is doing this on purpose, it will just be a natural by-product, although as the CPC are MLs they will probably understand this.

 No.14742

>>14739
There is no market reform. Its RFA propaganda. The special economic zone was set up true but that is just a limited area to learn good practices from capitalists and adopt in building socialism. Public ownership constitutes major portion of the economy. Even recent tour videos by Chinese tourists confirm this. The tour guide says "there is no concept of private property here"

https://youtu.be/rtEY65t0L3k

 No.14743

>>14738
All the AES nations are attempting to do Socialism in their own way in tune with their historical and material conditions. Which is how it is supposed to work.

 No.14744

>>14736
I do fear the years of danger that are already upon us as US grasp disintegrates, the process has been under way under some time actually.
Eastern Europe, Finland Taiwan, Japan and Korea are also kinda worrying places to live for the next few years to a decade. Totally burger cucked and next to America's stated enemies. Iraq and other Iran's neighbors too, Saudis maybe too, but I have hope that middle east is going to be better off now. Of course if nukes start to fly, then all bets are off. Ukrainian nation of course is dying for the empire's right to persist already, but probably only hastening it's collapse as I see it. I hope adults on both sides (whatever remain in the west) will manage the disassembly as graciously as possible. In decade or two we will be on clear multipolar waters again.

 No.14745

>>14740
A while ago
I'm going to turn this around on you

Capitalism is defined by crisis every ten years or so

If the Chinese continue to have no crisis then by definition it is not capitalism

 No.14746

>>14743
Oh is it ? Then why do they keep insisting markets and mixed ownership as the way forward and warn members from going down the path of actual planned economy. How long will you red capitalist bootlickers cope ?

 No.14747

>>14746
No AES went through a stage of Capitalist development and require element of it in order to develop their productive capabilities. It is only really through highly advanced productive forces that Socialism and then Communism can be realised as it is only through this that the commodity form can become redundant.

You must remember that all AES are young nations generally born from intense struggle and economic backwardness. The PRC has only existed for 75 years which is around the average human lifespan.

 No.14748

File: 1683478595462.jpg (134.85 KB, 749x738, socialismby2230pls.jpg)

>>14747
PRC literally manufactures post of the worlds stuff how much for productive forces are needed sire ? Can we get socialism by 2230 atleast sire ? Why these red capitalists keep saying completely planned economy bad sire ?

 No.14749

Key phrases to research in your spare time
"commanding heights"
"bird in cage"

 No.14750

I just want healthcare. Are we going to at least get to have mild social democracy again?

 No.14751

>>14748

Idk how long it will take for China to achieve Communism, I'm not the PRC. I don't even know if they will pull it off. But their logic does make sense and has done them well so far.

A completely planned economic in a not fully developed nation would be bad, it would be inefficient. Socialism isn't just when planned economy.

 No.14752

>>14751
I repeat they have zero plans to implement planned economy at anytime in the future. Zero. In fact they actively advise against it

 No.14753

>>14742
>The special economic zone
Zones. Plural.
> to learn good practices from capitalists and adopt in building socialism
Come fucking on.

 No.14754

>>14745
>If the Chinese continue to have no crisis then by definition it is not capitalism
They do have crises already. Like every capitalist nation, lol.

 No.14755

>>14752

Socialism isn't just when you have a planned economy. However, they do still engage in five-year plans. To have a fully centralised economy based on need over exchange is a very large thing. I reckon if the PRC isn't destroyed they will achieve it.

 No.14756

>>14755
So did India for 50 years. Look up the word dirigisme

 No.14757

>>14755
>Socialism isn't just when you have a planned economy.
It is. You can't have market anarchy and socialism, period.

 No.14758

>>14753
Its to learn company management tactics and get technology. Plus its limited to small area. They never allowed it to be implemented nation wide like dengist countries

 No.14759

>>14756

>omg china doesn't centrally plan so not socialism ever

>well they do have 5-year plans, there is an element of it
>INDIA DID THAT

log off man

 No.14760

>>14756
How is that working out for them compared to China?
>>14754
Really? Show me one example

 No.14761

File: 1683479679843.png (393.68 KB, 640x663, 3tefw.png)

>>14755
>socialism is not planned economy
>socialism is not abolition of wage labor
>socialism is not abolition of private property
>socialism is not …
What next dengist ? What else are you willing to sacrifice in order to hold on to your delusion that China, Vietnam, Lao etc. are in any way socialist

 No.14762

>>14757
The PRC doesn't have "market anarchy". More over, Capitalism employs elements of central planning, it is just done by the Capitalist class and the instruments of the bourgeoise state to suit the interest of the porks. Baby level understanding of political economy and socialism.

 No.14763

>>14761

>what else are you willing to sacrifice in this fantasy I made up in my own mind where you think socialism isn't these things. I can't believe you said you want to privatise healthcare in my head

 No.14764

>>14759
>>14760
India did not have a meritocratic government to carry out dirgisme hence their policies including protectionism backfired. As simple as. Does not change the fact that China is red capitalist

 No.14765

>>14762
>The PRC doesn't have "market anarchy"
do you understand what it even means ffs?
>Capitalism employs elements of central planning
Yes for profits, not for needs. Exactly as Chinese are doing it. Dengoids argument about "extreme poverty reduction" is a clear show of this.
>Baby level understanding of political economy and socialism.
Said fucking mongoloid that doesn't understand what market anarchy is.

 No.14766

>>14765
the person who uses racial slurs on an imageboard wants to teach us all about Socialism

 No.14767

Putting aside "is China socialist", will China's relative ascendence amid US decline help the international socialist movement at all? The Soviets seem like Trotskyists in comparison with their funding for revolutionary movements but I'm sure hypothetical new ML/Socdem governments in the third world being able to get a loan from someone who's not the IMF can't hurt, right? Is Latin America going socdem a reason to be hopeful that governments could emerge that could be willing to evolve away from capitalism as the system falls apart?

 No.14768

>>14767
>Putting aside "is China socialist", will China's relative ascendence amid US decline help the international socialist movement at all?
Capitalist China may be useful for technology transfers and as a possible alternative for loans yes. I wont place my bets on India since they are too incompetent due to current government system, anyone who can take on and surpass US its definitely PRC

 No.14769

>>14767
Yes I think so. This is part of the reason why the U.S and its client states are freaking out so much about China in Africa. The PRC offers a better deal and rn isn't interventionist. If the Belt and Road is successful it will likely be the death-blow for Western imperialism, so expect Western interventions in states that adopt it.

Idk if the PRC would ever transition to actively aiding revolution as that is against their current anti-interventionist public stance. But who knows what the future holds.

The REAL big deal about the shift towards China is it weakens the West's ability to use sanctions. If things go well, it will completely remove it, and sanctions are really THE way the Western empire keep countries under the heel.

 No.14770

>>14768
to add multipolar world might be good for communist acceptance and propaganda, but their state police will of course suppress their workers with equal brutality as westoid regimes

 No.14771

>>14766
>the person who uses racial slurs
Not a racial slur actually. Basically, i called you retarded.

 No.14772

>>14767
>The Soviets seem like Trotskyists in comparison with their funding for revolutionary movements
<ML is when you don't fund revolutions in other countries.
Trot rot is heavy here

 No.14773

>>14771
smartest ultra

 No.14774

>>14773
Dengoids like every other rightoids like to paint themself as victims.

 No.14775

>>14771
>mongoloid

 No.14776

>>14774

You are quite literally gaslighting yourself with your own delusions, would be funny if it wasn't so sad

 No.14777

>>14774
dengist cares more about a slur than the fact that his favorite states are nothing but capitalist states in red clothes, says it all

 No.14778

File: 1683481325799.jpg (36.76 KB, 800x582, gj5enhovvpi91.jpg)

>>14777
me knowing that slurs are bad and no principled socialist would use them

 No.14779

>>14776
Deng beetles have gall to call other people delusional while believing in "press communism button in 2050".
>>14777
Because it's an easy way out of argument. Paint yourself a victim. They do it all the time, i remember in china thread, before those splits, when the board was more populated, you couldn't even call China capitalist without dozens of bengoids calling you sinophobe.

 No.14780

Shall i bring up how even Cockshott partially relies on market mechanisms in a planned economy?

 No.14781

>Does capitalist development necessarily lead to socialism?
Yes
Or barbarism

 No.14782

>>14779
>Because it's an easy way out of argument. Paint yourself a victim. They do it all the time, i remember in china thread, before those splits, when the board was more populated, you couldn't even call China capitalist without dozens of bengoids calling you sinophobe.
Liars and people who don't have truth on their side resort to these cheap tactics. As expected

 No.14783

>>14782
If it's true it's true
also
>Truth
lol I should make a tally every time a w*sterner uses the exact language of a shepherd without a flock but it'd just be constant.
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

 No.14784

>>14720
>Nearly every successful socialist revolution has happened in an underdeveloped nation in the global periphery, usually very early in that place's capitalist development.

Weakest links

>While these revolutionary projects have proved incredibly successful at raising living standards and quality of life and modernizing their nations, most successful socialist projects have a habit of reverting through revisionism into some level of capitalist development.


Every bourgeois revolution happened on the back of ordinary people who fought for equality and well-being of all. Liberalism was socdemery of it's age. Is it really surprising that porkies of the weakest links will have no choice but to support socialist revolutions with the idea to force through capitalism through corruption, coups and such?

>Stuff promising "socialism by 2050" because development will necessarily lead to communism


Continued economic development REQUIRES socialism because capitalism cannot provide enough human capital to support higher and higher levels of economic development.

 No.14785

>>14779
You didn't believe Chairman Xi when he got on stage and said he would push the Communism button in 2050?

 No.14786

>>14779
>>14782

I'm not a victim because neither of these slurs apply to me. It just shows that you are a reactionary in no position to be lecturing others on Socialism. Keep coping.

 No.14787

>>14769
Both internal and external the Empire isn't doing good.

 No.14788

>>1457643
if you stopped making things up in your head and then getting upset about them you would live a happier, more fulfilling life

 No.14789

>>14783
>lol I should make a tally every time a w*sterner uses the exact language
Wh*te hands wrote this post

 No.14790

>>14766
Marx called Lassalle a jewish nigger. I guess he can't teach us anything about socialism.

 No.14791

>>14720
Certainly not. I see PMC as more revolutionary than proletarians at this point of technological progress.

 No.14792

>>14790
Maybe that is why dengists refuse to read Marx, It all adds up now

 No.14793

>>14792
Americans who are hysterically anti-china should be banned from this board.

 No.14794

>>14792
Have you read Deng? What a weird thing to say, can you explain what you meant?

 No.14795

>>14720
Internal contradictions. Capitalism tends to undermine its own foundations. It's able to delay the inevitable, usually via interventionism via a compromised government. If not for that, capitalism would have collapsed many decades ago.

 No.14796

>>14793
Dude I am literally an Indian. I don't support any imperial western aggression against China but I also am sure China is in no way a socialist country anymore and has no plans for it in the future as said by party members themselves. I like Chinese culture and innovation but in no way see them as socialist

 No.14797

>>14723
How would post-RoP 0 capitalism even work? What else would people do?

 No.14798

>>14723
No anon that's what the big "Neo-Feudalism" lever is for.

 No.14799

>>14797
The top levels of bourgeoisie can still have profit even as the average drops below zero.

 No.14800

>>14761
socialism is when there's an ML party in charge

 No.14801


 No.14802

File: 1683549125159.jpg (10.2 KB, 190x266, image_proxy(1).jpg)


 No.14803

>>14790
Marx was born in the 1800s. You are living in 2023. When you refuse to adopt a dialectical outlook on historical figures because you are so desperate to use slurs.

 No.14804

>>14799
but what happens when you have absolute heat death?

 No.14805

>>14748
>PRC literally manufactures post of the worlds stuff how much for productive forces are needed sire ?
enough to sustain itself from imperialist overthrow

>Can we get socialism by 2230 atleast sire ?

depends if we can build enough to eclipse the capitalists without them killing everyone

 No.14806

>>14761
yeah socialism is not a checklist, that is the opposite of dialectical thinking

socialism is not a state of affairs which is to be established
socialism is not ideal to which reality will have to adjust itself
socialism is the movement to abolish the present state of things

 No.14807

ultras be like:
>why doesnt china go full on planned economy or communist when its still in the process of creating a alternative economic global system.
<certainly if china presses the communist button then its not like china will be isolated, its on the fench capitalist partners wont abandon them, or get couped by the major capitalist powers. Its not like large portions of east asia, africa, middle east and latin america are compradors, easily couped, or suffer from the remnants of western imperialism. And its not like china pressing the communist button wont just make the major western powers embrace anti china fascism instead of socialism. Oh and its certainly not like those same nations that are on the fench also include opportunistic capitalist nations that can easily betray china.

 No.14808

>>14733
If China's development isn't stalled, it's literally impossible for them to keep up this level of progress by still maintaining capitalist. At some point the private sector becomes too much of a burden on the economy and has to be phased out. It doesn't matter what Xi says, he needs to calm foreign investors, an unfortunate pragmatism. You are not going to get cybernetic fully automated capitalism.

It's not dirigisme because unlike France under DeGaul they are a dictatorship of the proletariat and peasants.

Form =/= substance

 No.14809

>>14808 (me)
Also I find it an odd notion that a party elite can just "press the communism button", that's essentially a Trotskyite/Blanquist concept. Socialism has to involve large masses of people like it was in the early USSR or Cuba today.

It's also pretty arrogant to allege that top party leaders of the biggest Communist Party don't know what socialism is. It's not like the Western left amounts to failure after failure.

 No.14810

>>14808
>It's not dirigisme because the CPC is in charge
why does the superstructure matter here?

 No.14811

>>14810
1. The superstructure does in fact matter
2. It's not just the CPC it's how the entire state is organized
3. Dirigisme is not an ideology it's a way to conduct economic affairs. A state can use dirigisme and still has a specific class character. The USSR dirigisme in the NEP and clearly was a socialist republic. Cuba today pretty much uses dirigisme.

 No.14812

>>14811
yes anon that's my point. you're saying CHYNA isn't dirigisme. if it isn't then what is it?

 No.14813

china is socialism but with dirigsme characteristics

 No.14814

>>14813
Capitalism with chinese "socialism" (nationalism) characteristics.

 No.14815

>>14807
What's a fench

 No.14816

de gaulle was a dengist

 No.14817

File: 1683629234561.png (457.64 KB, 1280x720, ClipboardImage.png)

>>14720
> Stuff promising "socialism by 2050" because development will necessarily lead to communism seems about as likely as liberal states promising net zero carbon emissions by 2050 or whatever.
In light of recent developments the deadline seems pretty arbitrary given the CPC had to know the Cold War would happen in-between. Not saying it wasn't considered , of course, but it's such a huge conflict that it strikes me as disingenuous to predicate anything on winning.

On the other hand it seems "undiplomatic" to frame the development of Chinese capital as accelerating the contradictions of global liberalism until it brought China, and the other big players, into conflict with the USA.

 No.14818

>>14817
It's closer to catastrophic climate change by 2050

Remember the rate of profit is falling and it'll be hitting zero around then

Socialism or barbarism have fun kids I'll probably be dead by then

 No.14819

>>14815
I can't spell fence :/

 No.14820

File: 1683671764012.jpg (225.08 KB, 1125x1230, 1683295478490770.jpg)

If we can assume that capitalism needs three essential ingredients, namely a strong and stable currency, a large workforce and a market for commodities to realize value, then the inevitability of capitalist collapse becomes clear. What I mean is this. The unfortunate side effect of an industrialized middle income society is plummeting birth rates, as China is now finding out. If one wanted to starve foreign capitalists of cheap labor power, they would look to industrialize Africa and get them self sufficient.

 No.14821

>>14820
>If one wanted to starve foreign capitalists of cheap labor power, they would look to industrialize Africa and get them self sufficient.
That's what belt and road is for

 No.14822

>>14820
my "the global dominance of the US dollar is not under threat and there are no viable alternatives" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt

 No.14823

>>14822
I'm tempted to print a T-shirt with precisely this on it. it's too late tonight though

 No.14824

>>14820
The "nothing to see here" meme is making a big comeback

 No.14825

Arguably, socialism as a mode of production has already superseded capitalism as a mode of production infrastructurally. The prospects for the future of civilizational BRICS multipolarity, for common prosperity, and for Common Destiny seem good; rejoice and invent the better tomorrow. Western leftists shouldn't treat politics as their escape from reality and should reconcile with the real conditions of their existence, and be not always constantly paralyzed by negativity or foolish nihilism; all shall be okay eventually even if the path be troublesome, and logic and faith both so seem to say.

 No.14826

>Does capitalist development necessarily lead to socialism?
Either the title is poorly written or this is a dumb thread. It's obviously "no". Very very obviously. Even with the vaguest Marxist idea of "anything after capitalism". Even with the vaguest liberal notion of "socialism is when you have healthcare". No. How Marx fucked up so bad on this one is a mystery.

 No.14827

>>14826
Do you believe in non-determinism?

 No.14828

>>14825
As Comrade Deng said I am a Communist and therefore an optimist
Why fall for bourgeois cynicism comrades? You aren't Haute Bougeois anyway it'll never work for you the way it works for them

 No.14829


 No.14830

>>14812
he's saying your divide between socialism and dirigisme is false because they're not in the same category: socialism is an ideology and dirigisme is a way to run the economy. so one can be socialist while running a dirigiste economy.

 No.14831

>>14830
>socialism is an ideology
socialism is a mode of production

 No.14832

>>14831
socialism is a feeling

 No.14833

>>14733
And Stalinfags will embrace this as legitimate socialism and ML while whining about Yugoslavia being revisionist.

 No.14834

>>14833
Why are you taking the name of the lord in vain? Don't you know you will go to hell?

 No.14835

>>14832
socialism is a way of life

 No.14836

Socialism is exactly the same as capitalism except people won't be able to get on my nerves anymore

 No.14837

socialism is what I say it is, and the more it fits with my ideals, the more socialist it is

 No.14838

Maybe socialism is all the friends we made along the way
It makes sense, you know, collective struggle and all
Thanks for everything guys, it was really a pleasure to build socialism with such lovely people like you
Let's now build a new world, far better then what we have now!

 No.14839

>>14755
>Socialism is when 5 years.
Garfield on Twitter AES???? Critical support!!!

 No.14840

>>14839
Socialism is when people are nice and don't look after their own profit but engage in "mutual aid"
This is what I get from liberals so I think it's the generally agreed upon definition

 No.14841

>>14720
We will have a classless society when capitalist have liquidated the useless eaters and replaced them with AI.

 No.14842

>>14841
Yes useless eater

 No.14843

>>14745
>Capitalism is defined by crisis every ten years or so
>If the Chinese continue to have no crisis then by definition it is not capitalism
China never had much trouble since Deng's liberalization because they make big bucks from international trade, their trade balance has (almost) always been positive so far.

But Chinese growth is also predicated on a large amount of debt (see Evergrande) that is expected to be reimbursed, and unlike the US, they don't control the world's reserve currency, on the contrary the renminbi is soft-pegged to the USD for devaluation purposes, in order for the US domestic market to absorb a lot of the glut of Chinese manufactured goods circulating on the world market.

In short, the Chinese have been unironically developing the productive forces using supply-side economics, but a different kind than Reagan, focused on gaining the upper hand in manufacturing.
It was the whole philosophy behind Deng's catchphrase, more or less "让一部分人先富起来", which was incorrectly translated as "To get rich is glorious", but more accurately means "Let some people get rich first" — if you want the real speech, take a quick look at http://keywords.china.org.cn/2021-01/11/content_77102316.html.

They did a great job at this, but the problem is that now, worldwide recession is happening — and crises have long-lasting effects, remember 2008, it's the main historical reason why you feel so miserable all day!


What I expect is the following:
>1) Western consumers absorbing the glut won't be able to afford as many Chinese goods as before, due to economic depression.
Imagine you are a Chinese factory supervisor, you see a ton of products rotting in stock, you don't have enough facilities to store anymore, and stopping the production is more expensive than letting the machines run. What would you do? Imagine this at the scale of China.
This is called an over-production crisis, and it's a real possibility.

>2) Chinese private companies — and perhaps public companies too, if they have tight budgets, reminder China is the size of Europe and local governments have a lot of autonomy — don't like to pay workers a lot, because it's unprofitable.

This means some Chinese companies are looking forward to delocalize their production to nearby countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, etc.
In turn for Chinese workers, the direct advantage they gain from GDP growth will recess, just like it did in the West before, and a more important part of GDP will be fueled by high-tech companies (and certainly financial capital as well).
Urban workers who aren't highly qualified will most likely be left out of the rat race, and be reduced to sell their labor power to Uber Eats 美团 in order to deliever food to PMCs and single parents in exchange for a substandard wage, just like in the West right now.
The working class might, as a side effect, eventually rediscover its rich socialist history in the process.
Oh wait, it's already happening right now, that's why 躺平 and 摆烂 became memes in the Sinosphere around the same time the /r/antiwork admin was being interviewed on FOX News, and young Maoists who get a tad bit rebellious get thrown in jail.

>3) The US will not want to get rid of their "exorbitant privilege" regarding the dollar.

I don't feel like explaining why it's not a good omen, you jerk off enough on the end of the petrodollar and the Russo-Ukrainian war already, you already know what I'm talking about.
I'll just quote a bit from Wikipedia, in case a Washington D.C. bureaucrat reads this:
<In a speech delivered in March 2009 entitled Reform the International Monetary System, Zhou Xiaochuan, the Governor of the People's Bank of China called Keynes's bancor approach "farsighted" and proposed the adoption of International Monetary Fund (IMF) special drawing rights (SDRs) as a global reserve currency as a response to the financial crisis of 2007–2010. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner expressed interest in the idea of greater use of SDRs as a reserve.
<However, he was criticized severely for this in the United States, and the dollar lost 5 cents against the euro in exchange markets following his statements. He and President Barack Obama shortly afterwards backtracked Geithner's comments. [Source is Adam Tooze's 2018 book "Crashed"]


I recommend reading the introduction of Trade Wars Are Class Wars by Pettis and Klein (2020) if you can find a copy of it, it analyzes the current trade war between the US and China, taking cues from Hobson's theory of imperialism and Keynes.

I'm excited for the future of China, not because it will collapse in 3 weeks, not because a glorious socialist future is forecasted for 2050, but because it will experience the same current problems of the West as it's basically a developed country now, and this will foster more international working class solidarity when ecological problems will pile upon us exponentially and we'll have truly no other choice than socialism or barbarism.
It's a good time to get immersed into Chinese culture.

 No.14844

>>14750
"lol" said the ruling elite "lmao, even"


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