/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

https://theconversation.com/the-emergence-of-jn-1-is-an-evolutionary-step-change-in-the-covid-pandemic-why-is-this-significant-220285

>Since it was detected in August 2023, the JN.1 variant of COVID has spread widely. It has become dominant in Australia and around the world, driving the biggest COVID wave seen in many jurisdictions for at least the past year.

>The World Health Organization (WHO) classified JN.1 as a “variant of interest” in December 2023 and in January strongly stated COVID was a continuing global health threat causing “far too much” preventable disease with worrying potential for long-term health consequences.

>JN.1 is significant. First as a pathogen – it’s a surprisingly new-look version of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) and is rapidly displacing other circulating strains (omicron XBB).

>It’s also significant because of what it says about COVID’s evolution. Normally, SARS-CoV-2 variants look quite similar to what was there before, accumulating just a few mutations at a time that give the virus a meaningful advantage over its parent.

>However, occasionally, as was the case when omicron (B.1.1.529) arose two years ago, variants emerge seemingly out of the blue that have markedly different characteristics to what was there before. This has significant implications for disease and transmission.

>Until now, it wasn’t clear this “step-change” evolution would happen again, especially given the ongoing success of the steadily evolving omicron variants.

>JN.1 is so distinct and causing such a wave of new infections that many are wondering whether the WHO will recognise JN.1 as the next variant of concern with its own Greek letter. In any case, with JN.1 we’ve entered a new phase of the pandemic.
<Where did JN.1 come from?

>The JN.1 (or BA.2.86.1.1) story begins with the emergence of its parent lineage BA.2.86 around mid 2023, which originated from a much earlier (2022) omicron sub-variant BA.2.

>Chronic infections that may linger unresolved for months (if not years, in some people) likely play a role in the emergence of these step-change variants.

>In chronically infected people, the virus silently tests and eventually retains many mutations that help it avoid immunity and survive in that person. For BA.2.86, this resulted in more than 30 mutations of the spike protein (a protein on the surface of SARS-CoV-2 that allows it to attach to our cells).

>The sheer volume of infections occurring globally sets the scene for major viral evolution. SARS-CoV-2 continues to have a very high rate of mutation. Accordingly, JN.1 itself is already mutating and evolving quickly.
How is JN.1 different to other variants?

>BA.2.86 and now JN.1 are behaving in a manner that looks unique in laboratory studies in two ways.

>The first relates to how the virus evades immunity. JN.1 has inherited more than 30 mutations in its spike protein. It also acquired a new mutation, L455S, which further decreases the ability of antibodies (one part of the immune system’s protective response) to bind to the virus and prevent infection.

>The second involves changes to the way JN.1 enters and replicates in our cells. Without delving in to the molecular details, recent high-profile lab-based research from the United States and Europe observed BA.2.86 to enter cells from the lung in a similar way to pre-omicron variants like delta. However, in contrast, preliminary work by Australia’s Kirby Institute using different techniques finds replication characteristics that are aligned better with omicron lineages.

>Further research to resolve these different cell entry findings is important because it has implications for where the virus may prefer to replicate in the body, which could affect disease severity and transmission.

>Whatever the case, these findings show JN.1 (and SARS-CoV-2 in general) can not only navigate its way around our immune system, but is finding new ways to infect cells and transmit effectively. We need to further study how this plays out in people and how it affects clinical outcomes.

<Is JN.1 more severe?

>The step-change evolution of BA.2.86, combined with the immune-evading features in JN.1, has given the virus a global growth advantage well beyond the XBB.1-based lineages we faced in 2023.

>Despite these features, evidence suggests our adaptive immune system could still recognise and respond to BA.286 and JN.1 effectively. Updated monovalent vaccines, tests and treatments remain effective against JN.1.

>There are two elements to “severity”: first if it is more “intrinsically” severe (worse illness with an infection in the absence of any immunity) and second if the virus has greater transmission, causing greater illness and deaths, simply because it infects more people. The latter is certainly the case with JN.1.

<What next?

>We simply don’t know if this virus is on an evolutionary track to becoming the “next common cold” or not, nor have any idea of what that timeframe might be. While examining the trajectories of four historic coronaviruses could give us a glimpse of where we may be heading, this should be considered as just one possible path. The emergence of JN.1 underlines that we are experiencing a continuing epidemic with COVID and that looks like the way forward for the foreseeable future.

>We are now in a new pandemic phase: post-emergency. Yet COVID remains the major infectious disease causing harm globally, from both acute infections and long COVID. At a societal and an individual level we need to re-think the risks of accepting wave after wave of infection.

>Altogether, this underscores the importance of comprehensive strategies to reduce COVID transmission and impacts, with the least imposition (such as clean indoor air interventions).

>People are advised to continue to take active steps to protect themselves and those around them.

>For better pandemic preparedness for emerging threats and an improved response to the current one it is crucial we continue global surveillance. The low representation of low- and middle- income countries is a concerning blind-spot. Intensified research is also crucial.

>>1704331
>>1740981
There has been a recent spate of COVID RE-infections (i.e. previously infected dudes getting infected again) where I live in the past few weeks. I wonder if this has anything to do with it.

>>1704331
The most important effect covid can have in the body is making the immune system weak. Apart from the covid reinfecctions, more people are getting a hard flu cause of that. In Spain, it's gonna be mandatory again to put masks on hospitals and health centers, which is dumb that it wasn't always that way. Me personally, I'm gonna buy hand sanitizer again for my commute on train, cause mfs always are coughing.

>>1741509
Reinfection is a big driver, but especially asymptomatic spread. Basically the constant cycle of infection and reinfection keeps breeding new variants which leads to a pattern of massive infection waves.

>>1741515
Hand sanitizer isn't a bad idea, but that mainly helps against droplet spread disease, which tend to be spread via surface contact. COVID is mainly spread via aerosol transmission which hang in the air. Masks and respirators are you best bet to prevent that, although they are starting to come out with sterilizing nasal sprays which actually stop infection.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/cases-of-100-day-cough-in-london-double-in-a-fortnight/ar-BB1hl8zA?

>Whooping cough infections among children have more than doubled in just two weeks in London.

>The UK Health Security Agency said 42 cases were reported in the capital in the week up to January 21.

>This is a rise of 147% on the figure which was reported just two weeks before.

https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2024/01/23/alarming-30-fold-rise-in-measles-in-europe-who/

>There was an “alarming” 30-fold increase in measles cases in Europe last year, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.

>Health chiefs are warning that cases are still rising and “urgent measures” are needed to prevent further spread.

>More than 30,000 people were infected in 2023, compared to 941 during the whole of 2022.

>The WHO believes this is a result of fewer children being vaccinated against the disease during the Covid pandemic.

>In the UK, health officials said last week that an outbreak of highly contagious measles in the West Midlands could spread rapidly to other towns and cities with low vaccination rates.

>More than 3.4 million children under the age of 16 are unprotected and at risk of becoming ill from the disease, according to NHS England.

>Millions of parents and carers are being contacted and urged to make an appointment to ensure their children are fully vaccinated against measles. The measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine is given in two doses – the first around the age of one and the second when a child is about three years and four months old.

>The vaccine is very effective at protecting against measles, but only 85% of children starting primary school in the UK have had both jabs.

>>1743276
hmmm I've seen people talking about all these childhood infection spikes being a consequence of immune damage caused by covid,
i didn't realize people have been vaccinating against typical things less as well.

>>1743292
Speaking anecdotally, it seems like there's been a spike in vaccine skepticism because of how the covid vaccines were handled and the general collapse in faith in public health as an institution.

Rampant COVID Poses New Challenges in the Fifth Year of the Pandemic
https://archive.ph/8OXoO#selection-153.0-153.68

<How would you describe the overall state of COVID at this point in the pandemic?
>COVID’s not in the news every day, but it’s still a global health risk. If we look at wastewater estimates, the actual circulation [of SARS-CoV-2] is somewhere between two and 20 times higher than what’s actually being reported by countries. The virus is rampant. We’re still in a pandemic. There’s a lot of complacency at the individual level, and more concerning to me is that at the government level.
>Lack of access to lifesaving tools such as diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines is still a problem. Demand for vaccination is very low around the world. The misinformation and disinformation that’s out there is hampering the ability to mount an effective response. So we feel there’s a lot more work to do, in the context of everything else—[we no longer have a] COVID lens only, of course, but using masks for respiratory pathogens that transmit through the air is a no-brainer—plus vaccination, plus distancing, plus improving ventilation. People are living their life; we’re not trying to stop anyone from doing anything, but we’re trying to work with governments to make sure they do that as safely as possible.
>We don’t know everything about this virus. Even in year five, there’s still a lot of research that needs to be done.

>I also don’t think we’ve mourned the loss of the more than seven million lives—that we know of. [The figure is] probably three times higher.

Why So Quiet about Long COVID?
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/02/06/Why-So-Quiet-Long-COVID/

>He reminded the politicians that long COVID can affect the young and old. It doesn’t care what colour you are. It can follow severe as well as mild disease, and usually involves multiple organs.

>It can disrupt the gut, fog and age the brain with Parkinson’s-like impact, disable the kidneys, damage the heart and cause chaos in the immune system. The post-viral condition has more than 200 symptoms. There is no treatment yet.

>One of the afflicted eloquently described long COVID this way: "It is a constant deluge of pain that slowly strips you of everything you used to be by taking away everything you used to do — daily exercise, going out more nights than not, seeing friends, attending concerts.”

>Al-Aly testified that the condition of long COVID now afflicts at least 20 million Americans. Their disability represents an economic toll of $3.7 trillion in terms of lost productivity and lost lives. That’s a loss equal to the 2008 recession.

>Canada shares this great burden. According to a recent Statistics Canada survey, more than two million Canadians reported suffering from the symptoms of long COVID as of June. That’s seven per cent of the adult population. More than half report no improvement in their condition over time. More than one in five Canadians battling long COVID on average took 24 days off from work or school.

>Al-Aly also highlighted one of the key findings of that little-cited Canadian survey and even shared a graph from the study showing that reinfections heighten the risk of long COVID.

>“Even if people managed to emerge unscathed after the first infection, they may get long COVID after reinfection,” warned Al-Aly.

>The Statistics Canada survey found that Canadians reporting two COVID-19 infections were 1.7 times more likely to report prolonged symptoms of long COVID than those reporting only one infection.

Those who had experienced three or more COVID infections (and that’s become most of us) were 2.6 times more likely to develop long COVID.

A U.S. program found similar results: “Ten per cent of people with one infection had long COVID, compared to 20 per cent of those with two or more infections.”

>Yet somehow the reality isn’t getting through to most people. As Al-Aly reminded the senators, “The risks of getting long COVID after reinfection are not known to the general public.”

>“We must recognize vaccine injury,” Al-Aly said. “We must understand how it happens and how to mitigate it. Understanding vaccine injury will not only help us produce safer vaccines, but it can also offer insights into the mechanisms of long COVID.”

>Preventing long COVID requires ventilation and air filtration systems in schools and hospitals to stop the spread of COVID. Bad air is an eminently fixable problem.

>The virus responsible for the Spanish flu set the stage for a wave of Parkinson’s disease decades later. People born during that pandemic had a threefold increased risk of later developing Parkinson’s.

>The Epstein-Barr virus, once called the kissing disease, can lead to cancer, diabetes or multiple sclerosis decades later. An innocent flu-like infection can later erupt into a debilitating condition known as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome. And so on.

>“The idea that a virus that produces acute infections can also cause chronic disease is not new. We just ignored it for 100 years,” said Al-Aly.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2313661121

>In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic’s socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

>Excess mortality calculations have been widely used to assess the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (1). Excess mortality refers to the difference between the observed number of deaths during a given period and the number of deaths that would be expected based on earlier mortality trends (2). More than 1.1 million excess all-cause deaths occurred in the United States during the first 24 mo of the pandemic, with approximately 635,000 in the first 12 mo and 544,000 in the next 12 mo (3). Most prior studies have found that the number of excess deaths in the United States has exceeded the number of reported COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic (4–8).

>The term “excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 causes” (or alternatively “excess deaths excluding reported COVID-19 deaths”) refers to the number of deaths during the pandemic above (or below) the number expected based on pre-pandemic trends but which were not attributed to COVID-19 on death certificates (7, 9, 10). COVID-19 is typically reported as an underlying cause of death but can be listed elsewhere on the death certificate in some cases. We define “reported COVID-19 deaths” as death certificates with any mention of COVID-19.
There are several possible reasons why some excess deaths during the pandemic were not reported as COVID-19 deaths. Some deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection may have gone unrecognized by death investigators as COVID-19 deaths due to limited COVID-19 testing, atypical presentation of symptoms, comorbidities, limited resources for death investigation in out-of-hospital settings, and stigma or political beliefs about COVID-19 (11–15). Deaths could also be indirectly related to the pandemic as a result of health care delays and interruptions (16, 17) and/or social and economic impacts of the pandemic such as housing instability, employment loss, food insecurity, social isolation, and increases in poisonings, suicide, homicide, and accidents (18–23).
Most prior studies of excess mortality during the pandemic have examined deaths from all causes (3–6, 8), but estimates of excess deaths from natural causes could be useful to study to what extent reported COVID-19 death counts captured deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Natural causes include diseases and chronic conditions, whereas external causes consist of intentional and unintentional injuries (24). SARS-CoV-2 infection is unlikely to lead to excess deaths from external causes in the short term (25, 26). Therefore, differences between excess natural-cause deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths may represent a more plausible estimate of unrecognized COVID-19 deaths than comparisons that include external causes.

>A growing body of research has investigated the spatial and temporal patterning of mortality attributable to COVID-19 across the United States (27–30). A prior study by our team produced monthly estimates of all-cause excess mortality for US counties (3). This study examined spatial and temporal variation in excess mortality, leaving important questions unanswered about excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes. Specifically, it is unknown how many excess deaths have occurred during the pandemic that were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes, which counties and regions had more of these deaths in relative and absolute terms, how these deaths progressed temporally in different areas, and whether temporal patterns provide any evidence as to whether these deaths were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.
In the present study, we compare monthly estimates of excess natural-cause deaths generated by applying a Bayesian hierarchical model to monthly data on reported COVID-19 deaths for 3,127 counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic from March 2020 to August 2022. We then explore spatial and temporal patterning of excess natural-cause mortality compared to reported COVID-19 mortality in Census divisions, metropolitan–nonmetropolitan categories, and their combinations.

Temporal Association between COVID-19 Infection and Subsequent New-Onset Dementia in Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4716751

>Background: The relationship between COVID-19 infection and the increased likelihood of older adults developing new-onset dementia (NOD) remains elusive. This review primarily aimed to investigate the potential role of COVID-19 in leading to NOD among older adults aged 60 years and older over various time intervals.

>Methods: A thorough search was performed across several databases including MEDLINE/PubMed, PsycINFO, Scopus, medRxiv, and PQDT Global for studies published in English from January 2020 to December 2023. We assessed the risk of developing NOD, using Risk Ratio (RR) for measurement. The control groups were categorized as: (i) a non-COVID cohort with other respiratory infections [control group (C1)]; and (ii) a non-COVID cohort with otherwise unspecified health statuses [control group (C2)]. Follow-up periods were divided into intervals of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months post-COVID. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023491714).

>Results: Our review incorporated 11 studies, encompassing 939,824 post-COVID-19 cases and 6,765,117 controls. The overall pooled analysis revealed a significant link between COVID-19 infection and an increased risk of NOD (RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.21–2.08). In subgroup analyses, NOD risk was significantly higher in the COVID-19 group compared to C2 at 12 months post-COVID (RR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.41–2.38), but not at 3 (RR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.46–1.65) or 6 months (RR = 1.73, 95% CI 0.72–4.14). Compared to C1, the risk increase was not significantly remarkable at 3 (RR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.35–2.57), 6 (RR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.07–1.20), and 12 months (RR = 1.12, 95% CI 0.91–1.38), and overall (RR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.92–1.38). Female had a significantly higher risk of developing NOD in the COVID-positive group (RR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.53–1.78) and C2 group (RR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.22–1.44). Patients with severe COVID-19, as classified by the American Thoracic Society guidelines, were significantly much more prone to developing NOD than those with non-severe infections (RR = 17.58, 95% CI 10.48–29.49). Cognitive impairment was nearly twice as likely in COVID-19 survivors compared to those uninfected (RR = 1.93, 95% CI 1.52–2.43).

>Discussion: COVID-19 infection may be linked to a higher risk of NOD in recovered old adults at the subacute and chronic stages following COVID-19 diagnosis. This risk appears to be on par with that associated with other respiratory infections.

https://archive.is/1FdeO

>One patient who asked for an ADA accommodation at another hospital says she woke up postoperatively to find herself unmasked. So were some of the nurses. She had tested negative for Covid-19 before her admission and became ill shortly after that. Hospital-acquired Covid-19 carries a higher mortality—33% in one study and 10% during the Omicron wave. This is from worse underlying disease (e.g. cancer, CRF, immune status and generally older patients).

>Other patients expressed anger at policies like MGB’s which state, “Patients can ask, but providers determine when and if masking in a particular situation is necessary.”
Some patients noted that they felt safer during the pandemic when everyone in healthcare settings was masking.
One woman complained of a physician abruptly removing her mask to examine her without her consent. She felt assaulted.
A recurrent theme was frustration that medical staff are ignoring the science—that repeat infections increase the risk of long Covid, that everyone masking is safer than one-way masking, and that N95 respirators are more protective than leaky surgical masks.

>Another major complaint is being asked to wait long periods in unmasked waiting rooms for appointments, whether in the hospital or medical clinics. Patients are angry that they are refused permission to wait outside and be called in when it’s their turn. If restaurants can give people buzzers to call them in, one would think hospitals could master the technology.

>Vulnerable patients are rebuffed when they want other people in a waiting area to mask—being told, “We can’t tell other people to mask,” yet if there were a case of measles, they could do so. Similarly, in an oncology or rheumatology office with many immunocompromised patients, the staff’s “right” to go unmasked trumps the patient right to a safe environment.

>Patients fear retaliation and dismissal from a medical or dental practice, especially when no other options exist. Pantea Javidan, a Stanford sociologist and attorney stressed the difficulties patients experience “due to a power imbalance with physicians. They depend on doctors' expertise and can't easily question decisions such as mask-wearing.”

>What Christine and the other patients I’ve spoken with want seems eminently reasonable. MGB, UCSF, and others could start with a user-friendly system in place for patients to make requests. The ADA request should be readily visible to the staff—a flag on the patient’s electronic medical record or, in the old days, a colored tape on the patient’s chart.

>As Link said, “I never thought that Harvard's teaching hospital would care so little for lives like mine.” She surmises, “It's the same kind of hostility and apathy that people with disabilities have long experienced that tells us that we are burdens, that we should pipe down and not concern ourselves with equity because our lives are not as valuable as nondisabled people.”

"We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas."
https://www.vox.com/2024/2/14/24073306/isolation-covid-guidelines-cdc-change

>On February 13, the Washington Post reported that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) plans to issue new guidelines that would substantially pull back on recommendations for people infected with Covid-19.

>The guidelines, which are expected to drop in April, will reportedly no longer recommend that most Americans infected with the virus stay away from work and school for five days. Instead, they will advise people that they can leave home if they’ve been fever-free for at least 24 hours (without fever-reducing medicine like ibuprofen or acetaminophen) and have mild and improving symptoms. The Post’s story didn’t mention whether or how the new guidelines would recommend using tests to guide decision-making.

>“It’s a reasonable move,” says Aaron Glatt, an infectious disease doctor and hospital epidemiologist at Mount Sinai South Nassau Hospital on Long Island. “When you’re doing public health, you have to look at what is going to be listened to, and what is doable.”

>Guidelines that adhere to the highest standards of infection control might please purists in public health who don’t have to make policies for the real world. However, guidelines that seem to acknowledge that workers often don’t have paid sick leave and emergency child care, and that social interactions are important to folks, are more likely not only to be followed but to engender trust in public health authorities.

https://thosenerdygirls.substack.com/p/did-we-overcount-covid-deaths

<Did we overcount COVID deaths?

<No. In the US, we likely undercounted COVID deaths.

>A common refrain during the pandemic was that people were dying “with” rather than “of” COVID. The implication was that our official statistics were wrong and we were overstating the true danger of the pandemic.

>As we wrote about way back in 2020, data nerds like demographers and epidemiologists have tools to overcome the challenge of causes of death not being coded perfectly, especially during a crisis like a pandemic or natural disaster. The trick is to look at deaths from any cause (which we are good at counting), and tally how many deaths we saw above and beyond what we would normally expect. This “excess mortality” gives us a much better picture of the true mortality burden of a crisis like COVID-19.

>For most of the pandemic, the US had higher excess mortality than official COVID deaths. A new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science looked more closely at this data from March 2020 to August 2022. The authors calculated roughly 1.2 million excess deaths due to natural causes over this time (so excluding accidents, homicide, drug overdose), of which 162,886 were not classified as COVID-19.

>It’s possible that some excess deaths not counted as COVID were due to “indirect” impacts of the pandemic such as overstrained hospitals or people delaying needed health care. The study looked at the timing of non-COVID excess deaths across regions and counties in the US and found that they mostly moved in sync with spikes in official COVID deaths (happening just before or during COVID waves). This pattern strongly suggests that these deaths were under recognized COVID deaths.

>The study found that undercounted COVID deaths were more common in non-Metropolitan counties of the US, as well as in the South and West:

>In this figure, the darker-shaded counties had a higher proportion of (seemingly) undercounted COVID deaths compared to official COVID deaths. This geographic variation could be due to limited COVID-19 testing, more deaths outside of hospitals, and/or local differences in death registration by medical examiners vs coroners. Politicalization and stigma against COVID may also have affected the official counts by geography. Read a further summary of the new study here.

BOTTOM LINE:

>We have good evidence that COVID deaths were undercounted rather than overcounted during the pandemic. With over 1.2 million excess deaths in the US through August 2022, we can’t minimize the devastating human toll of the pandemic.

Ever feel weird at how over a million people died and nothing really changed much?

They're already forgotten now.

>>1761992
>>1763007
>>1772826
I cannot think of a more severe indictment of global capitalist civilization than just how fucking badly everyone screwed the pooch on this

>>1776849
Yeah, I think COVID response was what fully convinced me that China is better than the west despite all their flaws, and that the West is basically doomed

>>1776818
It's incredible. I didn't think it would be possible really, but over a million people died and thousands continue to die every week and people aren't freaking out. Trump really was right when he said as long as the numbers were low enough people wouldn't care (although they've been made to not care imo).

>>1776849
The worst part is that things haven't even gotten bad yet.

>>1778956
If you just don't put it on the news people don't care.

>>1778954
It's just a shame that China basically capitulated and adopted the same attitude as everyone else.

>>1778957
To a certain extent. People care because it effects them every day. For the past two months it's been impossible for my employer to keep our locations fully staffed because everyone keeps getting sick over and over. People keep trading the infection around or getting new infections afterwards. Everyone knows someone that is sick or has lost someone to the virus.

But the news/propaganda message that covid is over or whatever (and probably the realization that nothing will be done about it) has kind of atomized the situation for everyone. It's all down to what mis/information they've heard, how good or bad their own personal experience is, and that kind of thing. No one is really discussing it, so there's no community action on it.

>>1778954
China was doing well until they decided to cuck themselves.

>>1741509
not to be a contrarian but i've been hearing of re-infections increasing on and off over the past 4 or 5 months online, i think? but not anyone close to me has gotten infected. my sister, mom and gf have regular jobs and they see people for 8 hours at a time but i work from home and so does my dad. i live in a country where access to multivalent vaccines is virtually impossible, so that's definitely not a factor lol. my guess is that these are actually localized re-infection bubbles, sort of like the flu works,

i've heard that traveling on plane was almost a guarantee of getting covid all year long lol

>>1778977
>but not anyone close to me has gotten infected.

In all likelihood they were and it was either written off as a cold or some other mild illness or they were asymptomatic.

It's not impossible that covid has managed to pass you by for now but as long as it keeps circulating it's only a matter of time.

>>1778980
>written off as a cold
no colds, my sister and me mom were very obviously sick when they got covid too

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/mounting-research-shows-that-covid-19-leaves-its-mark-on-the-brain-including-significant-drops-in-iq-score.html

<Yves here. The evidence of Covid-19-induced damage is becoming both more solid and more grim. I had previously though that the cognitive impact of a case of Covid-19 was a loss of 1 autism score point. More comprehensive studies are finding that the reduction is typically 3 autism score points. On top of that, it can lead to an earlier onset of dementia. The autism score impact alone is so significant that across society it will change how we do work and even how some care for themselves.

Here are some of the most important studies to date documenting how COVID-19 affects brain health:

Large epidemiological analyses showed that people who had COVID-19 were at an increased risk of cognitive deficits, such as memory problems.
Imaging studies done in people before and after their COVID-19 infections show shrinkage of brain volume and altered brain structure after infection.
A study of people with mild to moderate COVID-19 showed significant prolonged inflammation of the brain and changes that are commensurate with seven years of brain aging.
Severe COVID-19 that requires hospitalization or intensive care may result in cognitive deficits and other brain damage that are equivalent to 20 years of aging.
Laboratory experiments in human and mouse brain organoids designed to emulate changes in the human brain showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the fusion of brain cells. This effectively short-circuits brain electrical activity and compromises function.
Autopsy studies of people who had severe COVID-19 but died months later from other causes showed that the virus was still present in brain tissue. This provides evidence that contrary to its name, SARS-CoV-2 is not only a respiratory virus, but it can also enter the brain in some individuals. But whether the persistence of the virus in brain tissue is driving some of the brain problems seen in people who have had COVID-19 is not yet clear.
Studies show that even when the virus is mild and exclusively confined to the lungs, it can still provoke inflammation in the brain and impair brain cells’ ability to regenerate.
COVID-19 can also disrupt the blood brain barrier, the shield that protects the nervous system – which is the control and command center of our bodies – making it “leaky.” Studies using imaging to assess the brains of people hospitalized with COVID-19 showed disrupted or leaky blood brain barriers in those who experienced brain fog.
A large preliminary analysis pooling together data from 11 studies encompassing almost 1 million people with COVID-19 and more than 6 million uninfected individuals showed that COVID-19 increased the risk of development of new-onset dementia in people older than 60 years of age.

>>1778958
Yeah, they had one of the only correct responses and some spoiled shitlibs in Shanghai screamed their heads off so they gave in.

>>1778956
>over a million people died and thousands continue to die every week and people aren't freaking out.
People are really apathetic right now. Some radlibs blame racism on why people don't care about wars and hunger in the third world. But ukraine and covid demonstrated that no, even when it's happening close to you, people just want to live their life as it was promised by the status quo.

>>1780622
I think for a lot of people apathy is the only real option at the minute. I remember when the quarantine happened and things got real ugly because you had people buying up all the water and toilet paper and stuff. It was like, yeah, what else are people supposed to do? Their employer isn't going to help them. Their government isn't going to help them. All most people got are themselves, their families, and maybe a church or something. Panic-buying emergency supplies is about the best any one can manage in that situation.

And now covid is here to stay, and what can you do? You can't buy your way out of it (for most people anyway), your employer isn't making people wear masks, the government isn't doing anything to stop it, so what can you do? Just pretend things are normal and try not to think about it.

Some good news for once
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13146861/Covid-pandemic-babies-two-fascinating-biological-changes-study-finds.html

>Researchers analyzed fecal samples from 351 Irish babies born in the first three months of the pandemic, between March and May 2020, and compared them to samples from babies born before the pandemic.

>Stool samples were collected at six, 12 and 24 months and allergy testing was performed at 12 and 24 months.

>The Covid newborns were found to have more of the beneficial microbes gained from their mother after birth, which could act as a defense against allergic diseases.

>If individuals have a disrupted gut microbiome, this may lead to the development of food allergies.

>Babies born in the pandemic had lower allergy rates: About five percent of the Covid babies had developed a food allergy at age one, compared to 22.8 percent in the pre-Covid babies.

>Researchers said that mothers had passed on the beneficial microbes to their babies while pregnant, and they gained additional ones from the environment after they were born.

>The study also found that babies born during lockdowns had fewer infections because they were not exposed to germs and bacteria.

>This meant they needed fewer antibiotics - which kill good bacteria - leading to a better microbiome.

>The lockdown babies were also breastfed for longer, which provided additional benefits.

>Of the Covid babies, only 17 percent of infants required an antibiotic by one year of age.

>In the pre-pandemic cohort, meanwhile, 80 percent of babies had taken antibiotics by 12 months.

>This was 'fascinating outcome,' joint senior author Liam O'Mahony, professor of immunology at the University College Cork, said, and 'correlated with higher levels of beneficial bacteria such as bifidobacteria.'

>Professor Jonathan Hourihane, consultant pediatrician at Children's Health Ireland Temple Street and joint senior author of the study, said: 'This study offers a new perspective on the impact of social isolation in early life on the gut microbiome.

>'Notably, the lower allergy rates among newborns during the lockdown could highlight the impact of lifestyle and environmental factors, such as frequent antibiotic use, on the rise of allergic diseases.'

>The researchers hope to re-examine the children when they are five years old to see if there are any long-term impacts of the early changes in gut microbiome.

>The study was published in the journal Allergy.

>>1778980
Not the person you were replying to, but I've managed to avoid getting infected with COVID throughout the whole ordeal. A family friend got infected just once and she ended up with Long COVID which in turn led to dementia. The idea of something similar happening to me after all this time terrifies me.

The worst part is listening to rich pricks talk about how things are great because we can treat this disease like the flu now, because treating a virus that can cripple you for life as a seasonal illness is really fucking great

>>1781147
Yeah, tbh something like that happening to my brain terrifies me only a little more than what else it might do. I have s coworker that got covid early on and it destroyed her. She was a healthy young woman in better shape than me, and now she can't wait up stairs without panting for breath. She might be like that the rest of her life.

>>1704331

Honestly it'll be pretty scary if this new Variant develops Anti-Viral resistances, thatl'll make it a absolute bitch to treat.

>>1781491
I'm planning on getting a second vax this march. I only got one dose in 2021 cause I passed it weeks before. I think I got covid again in 2023. For now I think I don't have long covid, but I don't wanna risk another reinfecction.

>>1781151
Wow by comparison I'm glad I only coughed non stop for a month and broke a rib because of it.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/update-measles-cases-are-being-reported-are-we-losing-our-herd-immunity-?

>On Saturday, February 29, yet another case of measles was reported in Florida, making it the tenth in the state, with only one outside the Manatee Bay Elementary school in Weston, Florida, where 9 students were reported to have contracted the disease that same month. This case reported in the Ft Lauderdale area was in a young child not associated with the school above, but it does raise questions about how this new case arose. Weston and Ft. Lauderdale are approximately 20 miles apart, and measles transmission is extremely high.

>Just days before, on February 20, Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, MD, PhD, sent a letter to address the ongoing outbreak at the school. In the letter, Ladapo left the decision about sending children to school to the parents.

>The letter stated: “When measles is detected in a school, it is usually recommended that individuals without [a] history of prior infection or vaccination stay home for up to 21 days. This is the period of time that the virus can be transmitted.

>Individuals with a prior infection or vaccination history who have received the entire measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) immunization series are 98% protected and unlikely to contract measles. Up to 90% of individuals without immunity will contract measles if exposed. Because of the high likelihood of infection, it is generally recommended that children stay home until the end of the infectious period, March 7, 2024. As the epidemiological investigation continues, this date could change.

[…]

>As a pediatric nurse practitioner, Stinchfield has treated numerous measles cases. In fact, she oversaw 3 outbreaks and says that when young children come in with measles, they are “some of the sickest children.”

>“They will come in very dehydrated. They are photophobic, and their eyes hurt and are very red. They need to stay in a dark room. They need IV fluids, they have severe diarrhea, and often they'll have otitis media or ear infections.”

>In addition to these typical symptoms, there can be severe disease that can lead to bad outcomes.

>“They often will have pneumonia, and that is the reason that people succumb to measles—both viral measles pneumonia in the lungs itself and then secondary bacterial infection,” stated Stinchfield. “So 1 in 5 unvaccinated people who get measles will get hospitalized. And 1 in 20 children with measles will get this pneumonia described…One in 1000 who get measles will develop a severe encephalitis that they might survive. Everyone talks about, well, very few people die of measles, but even those who survive it, they can get this encephalitis and develop seizures.”

>Despite these statistics, measles outbreaks have occurred throughout the US this year. CDC states that 41 measles cases were reported in 16 states, including Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York City, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington.2

>CDC reports a trend showing a reduction in children getting their standard immunizations. In January 2023, the CDC reported that over the last 2 school years, the national coverage for childhood state-required vaccines among kindergarten students declined from 95% to approximately 93%. During the 2020-21 school year, vaccinations dropped to 94%, and during the 2021-22 school year, it dropped again to approximately 93%.3

>And while this does not sound like a large number, it still represents thousands of young children not getting vaccinations. It is also a disturbing trend as some families may feel they do not need them or are fearful of vaccines.

>“Compared with the 2020–21 school year, vaccination coverage decreased 0.4–0.9 percentage points for all vaccines. Although 2.6% of kindergartners had an exemption for at least 1 vaccine, an additional 3.9% who did not have an exemption were not up to date with MMR,” the investigators wrote in an MMWR last year.3

>The CDC states This is the lowest vaccination rate in over a decade. The MMWR report said that as many as 250,000 kindergarteners are unprotected against measles.3

>There were more than 1200 cases of measles reported in the United States in 2019—the highest number in decades. In 2022, there was 121 cases of measles.2 In 2023, there was a substantial outbreak in Ohio and Kentucky that had 85 children contract the disease, and 35 of them were hospitalized.3

>“The short answer is measles vaccination rates are too low; The long answer is when those rates go below 95%—and this is really about in a specific community…When a local community gets below 95%, that gives measles an ability to make an entrance and spread in that community,” Stinchfield said. “So we always have vulnerable people to measles; we always have babies too young to be immunized; we always have immunocompromised people; [we have] people on various therapies that make them vulnerable to measles…even when our rates are high, we've got people that will always be susceptible to measles.”

>“Despite the care taken in the development and deployment of vaccines and their clear and compelling benefit of saving individual lives and improving population health outcomes, an increasing number of people in the US are now declining vaccination for a variety of reasons, ranging from safety concerns to religious beliefs,” wrote FDA Commissioner Robert Califf, MD, and Peter Marks, MD, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research in a viewpoint article in a recent JAMA.5

>In terms of treatment, there haven’t been any FDA-approved medical therapies to relieve symptoms; however, vitamin A has been identified as a treatment for measles.

>“All children or adults with measles should receive 2 doses of vitamin A supplements, given 24 hours apart. This restores low vitamin A levels that occur even in well-nourished children. It can help prevent eye damage and blindness. Vitamin A supplements may also reduce the number of measles deaths,” WHO writes on its site.4

>It is underutilized as a treatment in the United States. In 2019, NFID convened a summit and discovered that less than 50% of hospitalized patients were being treated with vitamin A in the US. As a result, NFID developed a report, "Call to Action, Vitamin A for the Management of Measles in the US," with recommendations on using vitamin A for measles treatment.

>“Once someone has measles, vitamin A should be prescribed to patients…And we would encourage clinicians to take a history of their vitamin A, making sure they weren't taking a lot of vitamins prior to their infection,” Stinchfield said. “It's an important tool to manage and to start promptly. So, clinicians and pharmacists should look at this tool and know the doses. They're very age-specific doses. You should have the vitamin A on hand and ready to go—and it's in amounts that would normally not be carried by pharmacies.”

Reducing Incidence Rates

>While it is not optimal, there is still some benefit to getting the MMR vaccine post-exposure. For those who have been exposed to measles and have not been vaccinated or contracted it, Stinchfield explains time is of the essence when it comes to getting the vaccine, saying there is a 72-hour window from exposure. The results of these vaccination interventions can be quite good.

>“Children who have been exposed and got their MMR vaccine within that 72 hours can go back to daycare and school because we feel that they have that protection and coverage that they need,” Stinchfield said. “If you miss that 72-hour window, for some people, there is measles immune globulin that can be recommended.”

>In trying to reduce incidence rates overall, Califf and Marks point to the public's significant trust in clinicians and retail pharmacists, but that everyone in the medical field has a role in educating the public.

>“All those working in health care, while being straightforward about the risks, need to better educate people regarding the benefits of vaccination so that individuals can make well-informed choices based on accurate scientific evidence.”5

>>1781491
As long as the infection keeps circulating, it's only a matter of time until it does, isn't it?

https://archive.ph/b5TLB

Student absenteeism is double what it was before the pandemic and teacher absentia is up too.

New Data: Long COVID Cases Surge
https://archive.ph/D9Z9T

Experts worry a recent rise in long COVID cases — fueled by a spike in winter holiday infections and a decline in masking and other measures — could continue into this year.

A sudden rise in long COVID in January has persisted into a second month. About 17.6% of those surveyed by the Census Bureau in January said they have experienced long COVID. The number for February was 17.4.

Compare these new numbers to October 2023 and earlier, when long COVID numbers hovered between 14% and 15% of the US adult population as far back as June 2022.
The Census Bureau and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regularly query about 70,000 people as part of its ongoing Pulse Survey.

It's Not Just the Federal Numbers
Independently, advocates, researchers, and clinicians also reported seeing an increase in the number of people who have developed long COVID after a second or third infection.
John Baratta, MD, who runs the COVID Recovery Clinic at the University of North Carolina, said the increase is related to a higher rate of acute cases in the fall and winter of 2023.
In January, the percentage of North Carolinians reporting ever having had long COVD jumped from 12.5% to 20.2% in January and fell to 16.8% in February.
At the same time, many cases are either undetected or unreported by people who tested positive for COVID-19 at home or are not aware they have had it.
Hannah Davis, a member of the Patient-Led Research Collaborative, also linked the increase in long COVID to the wave of new infections at the end of 2023 and the start of 2024.
"It's absolutely real," she said via email. "There have been many new cases in the past few months, and we see those new folks in our communities as well."
Wastewater Remains the Best Indicator
"This results in many cases of COVID flying under the radar," Baratta said. "However, we do know from the wastewater monitoring that there was a pretty substantial rise."
Testing wastewater for COVID levels is becoming one of the most reliable measures of estimating infection, he said. Nationally, viral measure of wastewater followed a similar path: The viral rate started creeping up in October and peaked on December 30, according to CDC measures.
RNA extracted from concentrated wastewater samples offer a good measure of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. In North Carolina and elsewhere, the state measures the virus by calculating gene copies in wastewater per capita — how many for each resident. For most of 2023, North Carolina reported fewer than 10 million viral gene copies per state resident. In late July, that number shot up to 25 million and reached 71 million per capita in March 2023 before starting to go down.
Repeat Infections, Vaccine Apathy Driving Numbers
Baratta said COVID remains a problem in rural areas. In Maine, wastewater virus counts have been much higher than the national average. There, the percentage of people who reported currently experiencing long COVID rose from 5.7% in October to 9.2% in January. The percentage reporting ever experiencing long COVID rose from 13.8% to 21% in that period.
Other factors play a role. Baratta said he is seeing patients with long COVID who have refused the vaccine or developed long COVID after a second or third infection.
He said he thinks that attitudes toward the pandemic have resulted in relaxed protection and prevention efforts.
"There is low booster vaccination rate and additional masking is utilized less that before," he said. About 20% of the population has received the latest vaccine booster, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The increase in long COVID has many causes including "infection, reinfection (eg, people getting COVID after a second, third, or fourth infection), low vaccination rates, waning immunity, and decline in the use of antivirals (such as Paxlovid)," said Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, chief of research at Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care and clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
"All of these could contribute to the rise in burden of long COVID," he said.
Not all states reported an increase. Massachusetts and Hawaii saw long COVD rates drop slightly, according to the CDC.

https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-rise-infection-30-percent-fatality-rate-japan-1883195

>There has been a massive surge in cases of a life-threatening form of bacterial infection in Japan that has left officials investigating the cause of the increase.

The nation's National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) has recorded a significant rise in cases of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS) predominantly caused by the bacteria that causes strep throat and impetigo—Group A Streptococcus.

STSS is caused by the bacteria reaching deep into the body—including the blood and deep tissue—and triggering low blood pressure that can ultimately lead to organ failure. In Japan in 2023, 30.9 percent of cases among those aged under 50 resulted in death, though the New York Department of Health says that up to 60 percent of STSS cases can result in death.

The rise in STSS cases has come in at the same times as a rise in severe invasive streptococcal infections in the country.

In 2023, there were 941 severe streptococcus infections—the highest since before the coronavirus pandemic. In the first 10 weeks of 2024, there have already been 474 infections, according to NIID figures.

In January, the NIID said that between January and December 17 of last year, there had been 340 cases of STSS, of which 97 resulted in death. This was the second-highest total since 2019, when 101 people died, but the highest proportion of STSS cases in six years.

The agency has not given a sense of the proportion of severe invasive streptococcal infections that have progressed into STSS so far in 2024. Figures from local authorities, however, suggest the high rates of progression are continuing to occur.

From March 11-17, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government recorded six cases of fulminant hemolytic streptococcal infection—rapidly progressing septic shock caused by the bacteria—one of which had resulted in death. Half of those cases had been caused by Group A Streptococcus, and all but one were among those aged 60 or over.

While STSS is thought to more commonly affect those aged over 65, the NIID said that from July 2023 onwards, the rise in cases was primarily among those under 50. The age group had also seen an increase in the proportion of deaths.

The sudden surge in cases appears to be a result of the loosening of COVID-19 measures that would have prevented infections of other diseases, according to a comments from Japan's health minister Keizo Takemi, according to the Japan Times.

Japanese media reported health officials urging the public to continue washing their hands regularly and tending to wounds, which can serve as infection sites.

David Katz, emeritus professor of immunology at University College London, told Newsweek that while a relaxation in sanitary measures following the pandemic would account for the rise in infections, the increase in the severity of the cases might be explained by the "old hygiene hypothesis."

"You've maintained your immunity to Strep A by being exposed to it all the time, and all of a sudden you weren't exposed to it for a number of years [during the pandemic]—so now when you get it, you get it without any immunity," he said.

While Katz said the increase in the proportion of people under 50 getting STSS was "quite hard to explain," he suggested the lack of exposure during the pandemic followed by increased socializing after restrictions were lifted may play a role.

"The under 50s are the ones who are going to be more sociable and more likely to go to parties where they get Strep A, I suppose," he said.

The NIID said that sampling of STSS cases had found that while 76.7 percent were due to conventional strains, 28.3 were the M1 strain which is more prevalent in Europe, North America and Australia. Around a quarter were of a particular lineage that became prevalent in the United Kingdom in the 2010s.

The NIID said the U.K.-specific strain had been growing in prevalence in Japan since 2019 and, since August, had been responsible for an accumulation of STSS cases in the Kanto region, which includes Tokyo.

However, it added that though the U.K. strain was "highly transmissible," the relationship between this increase in the number of STSS cases remained "unclear" and would require further investigation and sampling.

Katz said that a return of international travel was unlikely to have contributed to the increased prevalence of the M1 strain.

He described the presence of the strain as "interesting, but not important" in understanding the rise of severe cases, as it had been in circulation for decades and would likely have exhibited a similar effect elsewhere before—but said that longer-term study would be required to know what had contributed to them.

>>1781122
>Panic-buying emergency supplies is about the best any one can manage in that situation.
Panic-buyers have anti-social traits and need to be reformed. Resource acquisition (since we do not have distribution) should be approached like the prisoner's dilemma: everyone takes only what they need so and uses it wisely there's no reason to panic buy anything and ruin the equilibrium.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148696

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/risk-bird-flu-spreading-humans-enormous-concern-who

How deadly could a bird flu pandemic get?

When would it be likely for this to happen?