No.1797936
Successful revolutions are, always were, and always will be the result of the popular uprising of the masses. While a vanguard party serves to strengthen and rally the masses to rise up against exploitation and imperialism, ultimately it is up to popular will to carry the revolution to victory.
A good example of this is the Islamic Revolution in Iran (I will skip over explaining why the revolution was historically progressive, feel free to do your own research). The Shah ran a powerful national security state but was nevertheless deposed by the sheer number of people in support of Khomeini – who acknowledged that his victory was only thanks to popular will. No amount of spying nor sabotage could stop the waves of people occupying the streets of Tehran, just the same as no police force being able to quell riots in 2020 in the USA.
As far as I can tell, surveillance is the purview of Blanquists, fascists, and anarchists, and not a concern for the revolutionary vanguard. Curious about your input though.
No.1797964
>>1797936Its honestly hard to say if theocracy is more progressive than monarchism.
No.1797968
What revolutionary movement of the past would have survived the current western panopticon and achieved the critical mass you're talking about? There's not much point in answering unless you understand the breadth and implications of the technology.
No.1797977
>>1797968>What revolutionary movement of the past would have survived the current western panopticon and achieved the critical mass you're talking about? Idk about past but hamas are a notable example, no?
7oct should make us revisit such a totalising understanding of survalience. Its also been said for a long time the Americans and 5eyes hoover more data than they can parse into anything actionable.
No.1797978
>>1797977hamas isnt communist you fucking retard
No.1797984
>>1797936>The Shah ran a powerful national security state but was nevertheless deposed by the sheer number of people in support of Khomeini the only reason the revolution was islamist and not communist was precisely because the security apparatus was so focused on the communists
>is up to popular will to carry the revolution to victory.and how do you get that popular will organized ? a revolution isnt just a purely spontaneous rising, organized forces are absolutely crucial to its success
>No amount of spying nor sabotage could stop the waves of people occupying the streets of Tehranspying and sabotage is used precisely so you never get to that point
No.1797986
>>1797978totally besides the point you moron
No.1797994
>>1797968It was way worse for the Bolsheviks, most of their leaders had spent time in prisons. How many orgs can say that today?
No.1798001
>>1797936>As far as I can tell, surveillance is the purview of Blanquists, fascists, and anarchists, and not a concern for the revolutionary vanguard. Curious about your input though.<the bourgeois security state only bothers surveiling people they consider a threatThis isn't the dunk you think it is.
No.1798009
>>1798001<the bourgeois security state only bothers surveiling people they consider a threatDemonstrably incorrect. Retard.
No.1798025
>>1797977>7octwhat are the chances israeli glowies knew about it and let it happen?
No.1798027
>>1798025Hard to say. There are credible reports thry ignored warnings.
Personally I think it was hubris and this idea of 'suitably deterrence'd' that lead to a genuine failure as well as hamas opsec and intelligence adaptation successes.
No.1798031
>>1798025what it currently looks like is that they recieved warnings from Egyptian intelligence, but ignored them because hubris/it conflicted with their own intelligence, and that their own intelligence was so focused on digital surveillance they completely missed that the organizing for al-aqsa flood was being down analogue, word of mouth and paper notes in code, etc. organizers were able to actively misdirect israeli surveillance by using digital medium to spread only false info about their activities, and directing known informants to the fake digital side of things
No.1798041
>>1798031Yes that's a better way to put it. I'd say that If thry did seriously consider an attack the assumption was it'd be small and easily neutalized at the border, such as the attempted marine attack on 7oct which unlike the other fronts was quickly neutralized.
No.1798049
>>1798025I give it 9 out of 11.
No.1798079
>>1797984>spying and sabotage is used precisely so you never get to that pointThe Okhrana had agents on Bolshevik asses at almost all times. And as the other anon said, many of the leaders had already been to prison. None of that stopped the October Revolution.
>and how do you get that popular will organized ? a revolution isnt just a purely spontaneous rising, organized forces are absolutely crucial to its successRead my post again, carefully this time.
No.1798180
>>1798031>it currently looks like is that they recieved warnings from Egyptian intelligence, but ignored themIt's not realistic to say that warnings like this are ignored. They are deliberately disregarded. The CYA culture in organizations of this kind, where the stakes are so high, precludes carelessly ignoring warnings. Without denigrating the Palestinian struggle in any way, the evidence is that Hamas was a zionist funded and controlled entity up to Oct 7. Who knows what the situation is now? There's little point in trying to analyze specific events or short periods of activity. It's better to broadly consider the historical activities and capabilities of the Israeli intel apparatus, and their willingness to act.
TLDR a conflict, or at least a controlled happening, suited all parties, even at the global level, on Oct 7, so it happened. It probably didn't turn out as expected, but the chaos was a desired outcome.
No.1798206
before the revolution, surveillance is very very bad
after the revolution, surveillance is very very good
No.1798208
>>1798206>surveillance under a stateless classless societyso tired of pseuds god damn
No.1798229
>>1798180To be entirely clear, my position is not that it was truly ignored, it's that Israeli intelligence completely underestimated the capabilities of the resistance forces. They liked believed that any attack would be easily repelled and serve their purposes anyway, so didnt need to redirect from their current focus on surveillance/military concentration in the West Bank. Yes, Israel has supported Hamas to a significant degree in the past because they were seen as preferable to a more moderate electoral victory in the occupied territories which would complicate settlements backed by military ethnic cleansing which is their preferred strategy. I do not think this has continued recently, and I dont think it ever amounted to any real material support or coordination, at least I have never seen any evidence of this. It seems much more likely, and there is evidence of this, that they simply refrained from cracking down on and interfering with Hamas and focused on other Palestinian groups instead because they considered it to their strategic advantage. Whatever the circumstances, they BADLY miscalculated, because oct7 was an actual military defeat for Israel and the ground war in Gaza is a major strategic defeat for Israels entire geopolitical and domestic situation to an unsustainable degree. Hamas DID succeed, one way or another, at their own opsec and in manipulating israeli intelligence to their own ends, and are therefore a very important example in the context of this threads topic.
No.1798249
The German revolution failed precisely because it was surrounded by a highly centralized ideological state with modern police apparatus in place and reactionary population no less. What you are describing is what Lenin called the weakest link. Iran's shah may have had a security state, but he did not have the modern levels of ideological control many countries today can rely upon. So back to the books, OP.
No.1798255
>>1798180Anyone that refers to "Oct 7" instead of "The start of the 2023 genocide in Palestine" or something to that effect is a Zionist, imo. Not even calling you a fed, you just, effectively you consent to zionist historical terms. How am I supposed to have a serious discussion with you?
No.1798263
>>1797936>No amount of spying nor sabotage could stop the waves of people occupying the streets of Tehran, just the same as no police force being able to quell riots in 2020 in the USA.The spying we have now is massively more efficient and omnipresent than it was in the fuckin Shah's Iran, I mean do you realise they literally had to have a spy in every room that the conspiracy is taking place in, a person manually listening in on every phone line? Modern spying is 1000 times more labour efficient.
No.1798310
>>1798263>Modern spying is 1000 times more labour efficient.modern spying has made spies lazy. all you need to do is leave your phone at home, on. every dollar that goes to the NSA is a dollar that doesn't go into HUMINT
No.1798313
>>1798310Literally any civilian who has their phone on them and is in proximity to you is a channel for them to listen
No.1798320
>>1798313Okay?
Fueling paranoia with these kinds of unlikely 'but what if' points are just wrecker behaviour tbh, pushing people into a paranoid paralysis.
No.1798322
>>1798313not really. as far as we know no phone does that. the recording and transmitting of audio would be noticeable on batter drain alone. what is far more valuable is metadata and GPS shit that gets sucked up by FAANG
No.1798326
>>1798320not saying we don't need a revolution but bringing up the failure of the okhrana and similar shit as evidence is stupid
No.1798331
>>1798025It's probably a combination of them letting it happen and also not realizing what they were in for after getting too comfortable. The news focuses on civilian targets but they clapped a bunch of higher-up officers on Oct 7 too. Really doubtful that Mossad just let that happen on purpose.
No.1798333
>>1798330You see this is what I'm talking about with the wrecking behaviour.
No.1798335
>>1798333how? it's a warning to be safe and know what law enforcement does in your area. the last thing you want in your org are debutantes as leaders who have never even seen in the inside of a holding cell.
No.1798341
>>1798335Because it's overly melodramatic and to normies it reads 'dont get involved you'll get black bagged and gitmo'd just keep your head down.'
No.1798344
>>1798341>overly melodramaticAs I said, it's a reality if you do anything but shitpost online. Even on here, there are anons who get surveilled by police for their activities. You are also terrible at reading.
My message is simple: Know the stakes. Don't be afraid of prison time if you're serious about this.
No.1798346
>>1798344> it's a reality if you do anything but shitpost onlineLook fam just take your meds
No.1798348
>>1798346just fucking lol
do you do anything but try to be smart on imageboards?
waste of time, faggot.
No.1798351
>>1798344The petit bourgeois assholes here have a lot to lose, that's why they're such pussies.
No.1798361
>>1798255you REALLY gotta chill. in some other circumstance you might have a point even if you were being pedantic but in this case its the fucking date that the current situation in palestine directly unfolded from. if you want to play this game of holier than thou shitflinging about terminology someone could just as easily come at you saying "wow how dare you reduce a century of genocide and colonization by saying the genocide only started on october 7th???"
unless someone is using blatantly propagandistic language like saying "hamas started the war", just respond to the content of what someone is actually saying instead of this nitpicking moralistic bullshit
No.1798367
>>1798255um sweaty, don't deny the agency of the palestinian resistance by engaging in historical revisionism and erasure of the fact that they incited the current conflict
No.1798375
Surveillance is a powerful weapon, especially when a mass movement has not yet been formed. Even antifascist groups have used it effectively to cause organizational and financial damage to neo-Nazi organizations. You should be aware of its power.
It's also worth acknowledging many of us live in liberal democracies, where surveillance is mostly actioned against those committing crimes, and your political party isn't yet illegal. People ITT have already mentioned that the Bolsheviks did face arrest from the secret police.
>>1798330>vidfail video
Leaving your phone at home is to avoid police use of Stingrays to ID you, and to avoid them unlocking your phone and obtaining evidence (especially if you're a dumbass with face recognition unlock, but they might also pressure/compel key disclosure, depending on circumstance/law/abuse). The CIA have limited manpower and so much other shit to worry about.
>>1798344You're an idiot.
>>[random palestine discussions]go to the general.
No.1798624
>>1798263You can use your super advanced surveillance techniques to break up a small vanguard organisation. But none of that will help you when everyone from public servants to bakers to the armed forces are marching in the streets against your regime. Power, no matter how punishing and severe, cannot stand up to the people that keep things running dropping everything and hitting the streets. This is Marxist historical materialism 101.
>>1798361I will not chill out, because 1. This doesn't matter, this is a leftist shit posting station nothing of actual consequence occurs here beyond theoretical discussions of current events, and 2. Identifying feds is fun, and surprisingly easy when you know what to look for. I've done it successfully many times in the past.
No.1798628
>>1797936not really sure what you mean by all this but all i have to say is that if you think surveillance isnt necessary to stop counter revolution you really lack an understanding of history and exactly how stalins paranoia was justified to the point where he actually wasn't paranoid enough. at an absolute minimum for a starting point you have to know that nato was arming and training german/nazi partisans like the werewulf brigades to do terrorism and sabotage behind soviet line from 1945 all the way into 1956 with stalin dying in 53 not to mention the whole korean war thing with biological weapons and threatening to nuke moscow over opposition to the fascist italy/turkey/iran/taiwan coups. thats just while he was still alive without getting into vietnam and the abn/wacl, green berets, sas, special forces and jsoc being founded by ex-nazi ss officers, ibm and the holocaust, phoenix program and darpa/arpanet etc etc etc. throughout all this the soviets only had suspicions and they were later proven to be correct yet not even they understood how far reaching and pervasive the absolute degenerate insanity of standard oil and british petroleum would stoop too over getting cucked out of galacia and baku. they were literally the same people, linked the bush family that financed the holocaust and would later move to texas and get into us politics.
from the other side not worrying about surveillance means you are being complacent for when palantir and meta eventually stop only giving data to israel and border patrol and start sending the cia lists of people who make pro-communism posts on social media. counter examples to your iran example - indonesia, jakarta method, and all the places it was also implemented in, not to mention cointelpro for domestics. now imagine that but with facebook and twitter
https://libgen.is/search.php?req=jakarta+method No.1798632
>>1798330And what if it's not just me? What if it's the entire city? The entire country? What are they going to do? Blow us all up? Just wail on their entire population with machine guns? What about a population that has nothing left to lose, that has chosen freedom at the expense of everything else? What about a people that is completely fed up and will die before living another day under the status quo? What happens
then?The ex-junkie at my job understands the master-slave dialectic better than y'all.
No.1798693
>>1798632>And what if it's not just me? What if it's the entire city? The entire country? What are they going to do? Blow us all up? The liberal revision of history and radical individualism fostered through education and media makes ideological arguments greatly biased against revolution. Which leaves offering material improvements, tangible benefits for the worker. And that hinges on not getting bagged or co-opted.
The point is you never get there because the revolutionary movements get nipped in the bud, before even *they* know they are a threat. And the discontent keeps getting channeled into forms of false consciousness like culture war spats or electoralism grifts over and over.
No.1798872
>>1797964they aren't even mutually exclusive. You can have a theocratic monarchy like the ancient Israelite kingdoms
No.1798873
>>1798632> What about a population that has nothing left to lose, that has chosen freedom at the expense of everything else? What about a people that is completely fed up and will die before living another day under the status quo? What happens then?The bourgeoisie will gun you all down even if they have to draft a new working class from their own ranks afterwards. They will ALWAYS rather rule over ashes than give up their power.
No.1799270
>>1798873>They will ALWAYS rather rule over ashes than give up their powerI don't think that's true. If it were, then why have there been any successful revolutions at all?
No.1799273
>>1797936>just the same as no police force being able to quell riots in 2020 in the USA. An odd claim. I would say they were successful within a month.
No.1799277
>>1799270In most cases they lost a lot of legitimacy and physical capabilities to fight effectively before the revolts happened (and often triggered them).
No.1799286
>>1799277Legitimacy and physical capabilities, yes. I think you're right. But is the size and sophistication of the surveillance apparatus really a significant part of that? If the majority of the citizens no longer wish to tolerate the system, is it going to help the system to keep a dossier on each one?
No.1799305
>>1799286The security state is designed to eradicate people who could turn the anger of the populace into an effective force of change. The majority of people are not inclined towards revolt that creates lasting positive social change just out of the blue. Hence left groups being tasked with recruiting, organizing, and teaching. Many, if not most people who take to the streets with little to no training and organization will not remain there long. A truly revolutionary force needs to be a considerable force of power and just as a military, the true force lies in the social machinery backing the front line more than the front itself.
A bit odd to call yourself a trained Marxist when your understanding of revolt is much more anarchist.
No.1799356
> the true force lies in the social machinery backing the front line more than the front itself.
Yeah, exactly. The citizenry (including the armed forces, not just civilians) are the social machinery that backs the front.
I know there is a long history of intelligence organizations singling out and assassinating leaders of peaceful socialist coalitions like Fred Hampton. I guess I made this thread to counter what I believe is a common reactionary doomer narrative of disregarding the forward momentum of the mass movement in spite of whatever sabotages are made at the vanguard. This is often used in reactionary propaganda to paint the masses as domesticable sheep and to justify terrorism a la the Turner Diaries.
No.1799504
>>1799356The issues being that the masses are not the main target of mass surveillance. The state has other tools for that. And it is not likely that 90% of the population is going to simultaneously rise up in revolt.
No.1799532
>>1799504>And it is not likely that 90% of the population is going to simultaneously rise up in revolt I never even remotely suggested this. You've either misunderstood me, or put words in my mouth. You are also quite unfortunately unspecific about which population you're talking about. What of the populations in Chile, in China, in Cuba, Nicaragua, Iran… Do I need to elaborate further? Every successful revolution is ultimately a revolution of the masses.
No.1799540
>>1799532Sorry, assuming you were arguing in good faith and simply misunderstood, a population "simultaneously" rising up in revolt is not only a gross mischaracterization of historical revolutions (such as the ones I've mentioned above), it is patently un-marxist, like he literally never even implied that. No serious Marxist ever has. That's a Hollywood idea of what a revolution is.
No.1799789
>>1797964Idiotic response. I have to confess my eyes glazed over it.
No.1803505
>>1798632>The ex-junkie at my job understands the master-slave dialectic better than y'allMany roads lead to rome
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